Over 2 billion votes in 70 elections shaped geopolitics, marking 2024 as a historic electoral year. For some countries, elections spelled a further entrenchment of the status quo. For others, elections and their outcomes sparked mass protests and violence, posing greater security challenges and giving rise to civil unrest. 

Hart looks back on five critical elections and their potential impact on global and local security.

Pakistan 

Upheaval and violence amidst a military crackdown 

Pakistan’s general elections reflected a growing discontent with entrenched power structures and the military’s deep political influence. Held on 8 February after a month’s delay and two years of political turmoil, amidst terrorist attacks and an internet blackout, the elections saw voters push back against the status quo. 

Candidates running as independents but affiliated with Imran Khan’s populist Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party won 93 seats, despite a state crackdown leading up to the election and widespread allegations of voter fraud and manipulation. However, rival parties Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN) and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) had enough seats to create a coalition government that prevailed. 

Since the early 2024 elections, Pakistan has seen mounting tension with Afghanistan, increasing civil unrest protesting the election outcome and a continued stalemate with India over Kashmir territory. With continued violence, sectarian conflict and multiple border disputes, destabilisation is set to be a 2025 theme for Pakistan. 

Indonesia 

Tensions rise as new government navigates regional rivalries 

Indonesia is Southeast Asia’s largest economy and the world’s third largest democracy. Its 2024 presidential election, held on 14 February, highlighted the country’s growing economic power, strategic location, and central role in regional security.  

The election saw former Defence Minister, Prabowo Subianto, achieve a decisive victory on his third candidacy, winning over 58% of the vote. However, the election was characterised by controversy inflamed by alleged nepotism. This development has sparked serious debate about Indonesia’s election integrity, and how dynastic politics might shape future governance and democracy. 

On the global stage, Prabowo inherits a delicate tightrope. As Southeast Asia’s largest economy and a leading maritime player, Indonesia’s resources, and ASEAN role make it critical for economic and security strategies. Caught in the US-China rivalry, Indonesia faces tough decisions ahead between aligning with US initiatives like the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, or staying neutral to protect strong trade ties with China. Prabowo’s approach will shape regional policies, defence alignments, and Indo-Pacific stability. 

India 

Modi loses majority 

With over 600 million voters, India’s general election stands as the largest democratic event in history. It was held over seven days between 19 April and 1 June 2024, with results announced on the 4th of June.  

India’s election saw Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secure 240 seats, short of the 272 required for a majority in the 543-seat Lok Sabha. After a decade of majority rule, Modi’s third term marks the first time his administration has had to rely on a coalition consisting of 14 regional parties.  

On global matters, experts agree that India’s foreign policy is unlikely to change in light of a coalition. India remains a key player on the world stage, with the power to impact security in the region through its relationships with major powers such as the US, Russia and China.  

Tensions with Pakistan are also likely to remain in at a diplomatic stalemate, as India turns its attention to bigger players and domestic issues. Skirmishes on the border and in Kashmir seem set to continue into Modi’s third term. 

Mozambique 

Election triggers surge in conflict  

From 9 October through to the end of the year, Mozambique faced increased conflict in its capital, Maputo, over disputed election results. Already battling ISIS-affiliated insurgency in the northern province of Cabo Delgado, this new wave of violence threatens to further destabilise the country. 

2024’s election saw the ruling party, FRELIMO (Mozambique Liberation Front), who have governed since independence in 1975, claim another sweeping victory. International observers, opposition parties and civil society groups raised concerns about the election’s credibility, calling for a thorough investigation into allegations of voter intimidation, ballot-stuffing, and fraudulent vote counts. 

Immediately following the release of the election results, protests erupted across the country, particularly among young citizens disillusioned with FRELIMO’s long-standing rule. Though a recent high court ruling confirmed that Daniel Chapo won the presidency with 65% of the vote, protests are continuing to rock major cities like Maputo, and opposition leader, Venâncio Mondlane, has vowed to return from exile to lead protests. 

With continued violence and protest action, security challenges remain critical in Mozambique. Efforts to create greater security in the area will continue to rest on international and private intervention, as multi-billion-dollar gas projects and the prospect of much-needed international investment hang in the balance. 

United States 

Trump 2.0 puts America first 

The world held its breath on 5 November as it watched the United States’ election, which put former president Donald Trump back in office.  

Trump’s controversial approach to politics is likely to have seismic implications for US foreign policy, the world’s international relations, multilateralism and humanitarianism. The United States’ status as a world power also means that its leadership has significant influence over other countries’ more domestic issues, such as gender equality and LGBTQI concerns.  

In terms of global security, Trump’s second term will have an impact on the world’s current conflicts, including conflicts in Hart’s areas of operation. An America-first, isolationist approach may see a reduction in support for allies and contributions to the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO).  

As the world adapts to a new term of uncertainty, Hart remains vigilant and ready to provide world-class risk management and security solutions. 

Security in an uncertain world

Elections are more than changes in leadership. They are the barometers of societal priorities and signal geopolitical shifts and trends. From the effects of changing US policies to the security challenges in Mozambique, the 2024 election outcomes will shape global trade, diplomacy, and security for years to come. 

In 2024, many of the elections held in countries where Hart operates have shown a strong demand for change, illustrated by: 

Increased political unrest 

Disputed election outcomes and political volatility led to an increase in protests and violence in countries like Mozambique and Pakistan. Providing crisis management and on-the-ground support, Hart is well-positioned to maintain stability in high-risk regions. 

Rising populism and polarisation  

Many elections highlighted growing divides, with populist movements gaining traction and challenging traditional power structures. Hart’s advantage in monitoring political shifts and societal unrest can help assess potential security risks, which enables early intervention strategies. 

Youth-led movements 

The number of younger voters increased, with grassroots and social media campaigns demanding accountability and reform, disrupting traditional political dynamics. Engaging with communities to build trust and manage risks as societal expectations evolve, is a strength of Hart’s. 

As we enter 2025 and start experiencing the legacy of the global elections ‘super-cycle’, Hart is committed to effectively guiding and supporting our clients through environmental complexities with expert security and risk management solutions.

Contact us to learn more.