Hart International | Conflicts to Watch in 2025

With conflict on the rise around the world, humanity faces a heightened state of uncertainty. In the Global Risks Report 2025, the World Economic Forum ranks state-based armed conflict as the biggest current risk facing the global landscape. The number of active conflicts around the world has doubled over the past five years. One in eight people are now affected by conflict, and 2024 saw a 25% increase in violent incidents from 2023.

Research by Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) predicts that conflict levels will continue to rise in 2025, a year that is already being defined by shifting political alliances and the emergence of new security threats. For businesses, governments, humanitarian organisations, and NGOs operating in high-risk environments, this presents new challenges.

“Our world is going through a period of turbulence and unpredictability, reflected in growing conflict and divided societies,” UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Türk, announced at the 58th session of the Human Rights Council, which started in March this year. “[W]hat we are experiencing goes to the very core of the international order – an order that has brought us an unprecedented level of global stability. We cannot allow the fundamental global consensus around international norms and institutions, built painstakingly over decades, to crumble before our eyes.”

In 2025, these five conflicts are dominating headlines, and any one of them threatens to deepen the international crisis in which we find ourselves.

1. The Middle East: Israel, Gaza and Lebanon Conflict

The aftermath of Hamas’ October 2023 attack continues to shape dynamics in the Middle East, with conflict escalating across multiple fronts in 2024. Israel launched a major offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon, intensified military operations in Gaza, and increased crackdowns on armed groups in the West Bank. In April and October 2024, Iran carried out direct attacks on Israel, prompting Israeli counterstrikes.

According to ACLED’s Conflict Index, Palestine was ranked the most dangerous and violent place in the world in 2024. At the time of writing, the conflict has resulted in over 50,000 Gazan deaths, including many civilians and a significant number of children. In Lebanon, the conflict has led to the displacement of more than 875,000 individuals.

A temporary ceasefire in early 2025, beginning on 19 January, led to a hostages-and-prisoners exchange and a brief pause in fighting between Israel and Hamas, offering some hope for de-escalation. However, on 18 March 2025, Israel resumed airstrikes in Gaza, resulting in civilian casualties and signalling further escalation. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated, “From now on, Israel will act against Hamas with increasing intensity. Negotiations will take place only under fire. This is just the beginning.”

As tensions persist, the outlook for peace in the region remains uncertain, and this conflict is likely to continue disrupting the region throughout 2025.

A child views the destruction caused by conflict in the Middle East

Despite attempts at a ceasefire in early 2025, the conflict between Israel and Hamas continues to escalate.

2. Myanmar

Myanmar has been in an ongoing civil war since 2021, when the Tatmadaw, Myanmar’s military, staged a coup to overthrow the civilian government. Multiple resistance groups were formed in response to the coup and they remain locked in a battle for control.

Since April 2021, ACLED has recorded over 2,600 new non-state actors in Myanmar’s conflict, making up 21% of all non-state armed groups globally. Most of these groups were formed by anti-coup protesters who turned to armed resistance in response to the military’s violent crackdown. In 2024, resistance groups in Myanmar made significant territorial and strategic gains against the military. This included the historic capture of the Northeastern Regional Military Command (RMC) in Lashio, one of the country’s top military headquarters.

Civilians bear the brunt of the conflict: in 2024, Myanmar’s military escalated violence against civilians to unprecedented levels, resulting in the highest civilian death toll since the 2021 coup. According to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP), at least 6,231 civilians, including 1,144 women and 709 children, have been killed over the past four years.

2025 has shown no signs of reprieve for Myanmar so far. Not even the recent 7.7 magnitude earthquake that hit central Myanmar in March put a stop to fighting. According to the New York Times, a rebel-held village in the northern Shan State was bombed that same evening.

Potential elections – the first since the 2021 military takeover – could be pivotal. However, many experts like the ACLED expect this to worsen the conflict, ultimately intensifying the humanitarian crisis and further suffering for civilians.

3. Russia vs Ukraine

The war in Ukraine, ignited by Russia’s invasion in 2022, remains a pivotal conflict with far-reaching global involvement. In 2024, Russia gained more territory at a slow pace and with significant casualties, including over 500,000 Russian soldiers and at least 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers.

2025 has already proven to be a landmark year for the conflict. Up to this year, Ukraine has received consistent aid from the United States, and NATO member states continue to support its war effort. Following ups and downs in US provision of aid, Russia and Ukraine initially agreed to a 30-day ceasefire on 18 March 2025. However, Russia launched an attack on Ukraine mere hours after the agreement, hitting civilian infrastructure.

On 25 March, following US-brokered peace talks in Saudi Arabia, Russia and Ukraine agreed to halt military strikes on vessels in the Black Sea and pause attacks on energy infrastructure. As peace talks play out on the world stage, attacks continue to take lives and destroy infrastructure on the ground – in Ukraine and Russia.

Ongoing since 2022, the war between Russia and Ukraine has resulted in significant casualties.

4. The Sahel Region

The Sahel region of Africa, encompassing countries like Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Mauritania, and Chad, has experienced escalating conflicts in recent years. In 2024, jihadist insurgencies led by al-Qaeda-affiliated Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Islamic State Sahel Province (IS Sahel), intensified their attacks – targeting state forces, militias, and civilians with increasing lethality through air and drone strikes, IEDs, and rocket/mortar shelling.

In 2025, the region remains deeply violent, with instability spreading especially in Burkina Faso and Mali. State forces have been retaliating against civilians to prevent them from supporting jihadist groups, while groups like JNIM and IS Sahel have expanded their influence by presenting themselves as protectors against state forces and militias. This has resulted in more civilians being trapped under jihadist control.

This year sees the groups expanding from rural areas to urban centres, posing a growing security challenge. JNIM has already carried out numerous attacks in major cities in Burkina Faso and Mali, representing a broader trend of urbanisation and threatening nearby countries like Nigeria and Niger. Nearby states are also facing refugee crises because of the conflict, with over a million people seeking refuge in neighbouring countries, including Mauritania, Chad, Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Togo.

5. Sudan

The Sudanese Civil War will enter its third year in 2025. It started in April of 2023 with a power struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Before the war began, Sudan already faced a severe humanitarian crisis, with 15.8 million people needing aid. The conflict has worsened this situation, increasing displacement to 14.6 million and leaving 30.4 million people – more than half the population – in need of humanitarian support. This makes Sudan the world’s largest and fastest displacement crisis.

In July 2024, Amnesty International reported that large numbers of recently manufactured weapons and ammunition were being transported into Sudan from China, Russia, Turkey, Yemen, the UAE and Serbia – a constant flow of arms that supports the ongoing conflict. Fragmentation of the conflict is also increasing, with several armed groups vying for power and foreign backing further complicating the situation.

Late March saw the ‘siege of Khartoum’ being broken as the SAF retook the capital city, but fighting continues throughout the rest of the country. Several regional and international actors have tried to mediate the conflict, but they have failed to establish an effective peace process. In 2025, the situation remains dire, as displacement continues and humanitarian needs keep growing.

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Navigating global crises

Understanding these conflicts and anticipating their effects on global operations is crucial for those working in high-risk environments. Security risks – whether physical, cyber, or logistic – require a strategic, proactive approach.

“The evolving crises we’re seeing in 2025 – from increasing violations of International Humanitarian Law to climate-driven disasters – are placing immense strain on humanitarian and security systems globally. As pressure on aid budgets increases, the challenge isn’t just financial; it’s operational,” shares Gregory Brownlow, Director of Business at Hart Security.

“At Hart, we understand the importance of staying ahead of uncertainty. We’re reinforcing resilience through forward-thinking contingency planning and strategic execution, so that even in the face of volatility, our teams can continue delivering critical services where they’re needed most.”

To find out more about how Hart International can support your security needs in 2025, contact us today.