Like last year, deaths caused by terrorism are down. Unlike last year, the intensity of terrorist attacks is also down, with a marked decrease in scale and impact. However, the contraction of terrorism tracked in the Institute for Economics & Peace’s Global Terrorism Index (GTI) 2026 also shows a marked concentration. In 2025, most deaths were recorded in just five countries.
The GTI 2026 continues the Institute for Economics & Peace’s work of quantifying and promoting peace by uncovering, defining, and measuring the factors that can make it tangible and achievable. For the 13th year, the GTI summarises the trends, patterns, and nature of terrorism, where the world stands, and the underlying conditions that make the 2026 outlook concerning.
For 2025, the GTI tracks a decline in both the number of terrorist incidents and deaths, with 81 countries improving their scores and only 19 deteriorating. There has also been a downturn in the activity and a reduction in footprint of the four deadliest terrorist groups. Fewer deaths have been recorded in 2025 for three of the four deadliest terrorist groups, including Islamic State (IS), Al-Shabaab, and Jamaat Nusrat Al-Islam and Muslimeen (JNIM) than preceding years. Including Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), these organisations were also active in fewer countries overall.
However, that contraction bears out a consistent trend: violent conflict is still the biggest driver of terrorism worldwide, and with the world experiencing its most violent years since World War II, terrorism could increase over 2026.
Quick facts from the Global Terrorism Index 2026
- Deaths almost halved since 2015. In 2025, they fell by 28 per cent vs 2024.
- Incidents are also down by 22 per cent vs 2024.
- The Sahel remains the area most affected by terrorism, with more than half of all deaths from terrorism occurring in this region.
- Pakistan is number one on the GTI, replacing Burkina Faso.
- Deaths from terrorism in the West rose by 280% to 57, fuelled by political motivation, youth radicalism, lone wolves and ideological extremism.
Biggest factors driving terrorism in 2025
GTI 2026 highlights two major drivers of terrorism as particularly concerning: nebulous borderlands and youth radicalisation.
How terrorism flourishes on the borderlands
The majority of terrorist attacks in 2025 occurred within 100km of national borders, where state control is often weakest.
National and regional borders continue to shape terrorism and remain central to how it spreads and persists. The GTI indicates that 41% of terrorist attacks take place within 50km of international borders, and two-thirds within 100km.
Border areas are particularly vulnerable to terrorist groups. The typically difficult terrain of border areas and their distance from centres of state power means authority is often porous or weakened. State and security forces are further limited by strict jurisdiction and unable to operate across national boundaries.
Due to these factors, the report cites “the inability of states to effectively manage cross-border counterinsurgency [as] a key factor in the spread of terrorism in multiple regions.”
The radicalisation of youth
For the second major theme, youth radicalisation, the report focuses on two noteworthy components: the speed at which radicalisation is happening and the significant increase in the involvement of minors and youths in terrorist plots. Simply put: the time between radicalisation and terrorist action has decreased significantly. It started at 18 months in 2005. In 2025, radicalisation happened in a matter of weeks.
The report also indicates a dramatic rise in youth involvement in terrorism and violent extremism, with 42% of terror-related investigations in 2025 in Europe and North America citing children and adolescents.
These factors, alongside weakening state capacity, limited governmental and security forces reach, political instability, violent conflict and economic insecurity, contribute to an enhanced state of uncertainty and risk.
On Hart’s Terrorism Radar
We have the experience and reliability to work in uncertain, high-risk environments, and we’re proud to prioritise local hiring, which helps build local capability, strengthen resilience and contribute to long-term stability. We’re present and active in the following countries, where we rely on the latest intelligence, robust risk frameworks and expert training to ensure security delivery remains disciplined, proportionate and responsive to local conditions.
Pakistan
Pakistan ranked first on the Global Terrorism Index for the first time in 2025.
Pakistan, the country most impacted by terrorism in 2025, finds itself at the nexus of multiple conflict layers. The relationships between Pakistan and its neighbours have deteriorated, and 2026 has already seen sporadic bouts of conflict and ceasefire between Pakistan and Afghanistan.
In recent years, TTP has continued to expand its operations in the borderlands between Afghanistan and Pakistan, using new technology like drones. State security forces and both Pakistani and Chinese infrastructural and economic entities have also been targeted by the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), which opposes government economic policy. The result is an increase in deaths and a significant increase in hostage-taking. Pakistan faces overlapping military, political and socio-economic challenges exacerbated by its geography, which makes it hard for security forces to police and maintain.
Niger
Terrorist activity in the Sahel put Niger in the top five most impacted countries for the second year running.
Despite fewer attacks and deaths, Niger rose to third position. The critical shift in this context is the increase in civilian deaths in 2025, which now outnumber military fatalities. Terrorism is most concentrated in the tri-border area between Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali which forms part of the Central Sahel Islamic insurgency.
The country has remained unstable since the July 2023 coup, which continues to undermine counterterrorism efforts. A geopolitical pivot towards Russia, supported by Burkina Faso and Mali, resulted in a withdrawal of Western allies. Russian counterterrorism operations have deepened insecurity, leading to an increase in terrorist activities by IS and JNIM that has resulted in greater political instability.
Nigeria
Nigeria recorded the largest increase in terrorism fatalities in 2025, rising by 46%.
Rising from sixth to fourth position, Nigeria has experienced a significant increase in terrorist attacks, from 120 in 2024 to 171. Similarly, fatalities increased from 513 to 750. The country faces significant national economic challenges and a weakening capacity for governance, both of which fuel social unrest, which in turn facilitates and escalates terrorist activity.
The second axis of escalation is between terrorist organisations themselves. Conflict for territory between Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and Boko Haram, alongside internal factional fighting, pose major challenges to state security. This is exacerbated by the tendency of established terrorist groups, as well as Lakurawa (affiliate of Islamic State Sahel Province), to predominantly target civilians, who account for 67% of fatalities.
Mali
Despite a reduction in terrorism-related attacks in 2025, Mali remains an epicentre of violent extremism.
Mali’s rating improved from 4 to 5 after a significant drop in both number of attacks and deaths of 47% and 42% respectively. However, the borderlands between Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso remain the epicentre of both attacks and deaths, and the ruling military regime has faced ongoing instability since the 2021 coup.
State capacity is particularly weak as a result of three successive military takeovers since 2012, which creates the ideal environment for terrorist organisations. The regime requested the withdrawal of UN, US, and French forces, pivoting to Russia and Africa Corps (formerly Wagner). The outlook in Mali is particularly high risk as a result of prevailing government instability and the setbacks experienced by Africa Corps, increasing the risk of a significant uptick in terrorism in the short term.
Syria
Syria recorded the second-largest improvement in terrorism-related deaths in 2025, dropping to sixth place.
Moving from rank 3 to 6, Syria’s removal of the Assad regime and establishment of a provisional parliament and technocratic government have seen some stability returned to the country.
Joint counter-terrorism operations conducted by Syrian and US forces played a critical part in reducing the number of attacks and their severity, with 156 deaths in 2025 compared to the previous year’s 744. However, political division, economic conditions, and poverty remain significant challenges to Syria’s terrorism risk profile, and attacks are still a concern to be monitored.
Somalia
Somalia has consistently ranked in the top ten countries most impacted by terrorism since 2011, highlighting the nation’s persistent security challenges.
Terrorist activity in Somalia declined overall in 2025. This is due to the successful military campaigns against Al-Shabaab by the Somali government, in collaboration with local militias and with support from the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) and direct US military intervention.
The country has seen the lowest deaths from terrorism since 2019, with a significant reduction in incidents as well. However, fractures between the federal government and states, challenges in the AU mission transition, and an arms pipeline from Yemen’s Houthis to Somalia results in Somalia retaining its position as seventh most-affected by terrorism in 2025.
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The same factors that exacerbate the impact of terrorism also threaten the operations of the organisations in terrorism-affected areas. Weakened state capacity, limited governmental reach, low security environments, and economic insecurity result in uncertainty.
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